US-Israel War on Iran Raises Regime-Change Uncertainty

The US and Israel have been bombarding Iran for a week, striking government buildings and military installations. They have also hit civilian buildings, hospitals, and schools. On the first day of the bombing campaign, 168 young girls were killed in a direct strike on their school.

The Trump administration has claimed that Iran has attempted to negotiate a ceasefire, despite multiple reports showing the contrary. For years, Iran hawks in the US have pushed for a regime-change war, warning that Iran's nuclear program has been close to producing a nuclear weapon. Since last April, Iran and the US have engaged in negotiations surrounding Iran's nuclear program. Iran has repeatedly said that the nuclear program is purely for civilian purposes.

US intelligence points to a different potential outcome, despite a prolonged and aggressive war. A classified report by the National Intelligence Council shows that a bombing campaign may not oust Iran's military and clerical establishment. The report, completed in mid-February, outlined two potential actions by the US. In both cases, the outcome would remain the same: Iran's government would follow protocols for a successor of the country's supreme leader.

With increasing worries around US stockpiles of weapons, some Democratic senators are concerned that, with the quick use of missiles and advanced weapons, other countries that rely on US military assistance, like Ukraine and others, may not be able to effectively protect themselves.