US and Iran Conflict: A Look at the Role of Depleted Weapons Stockpiles
The US and Iran conflict has been marked by a high tempo of operations from the start, with both sides using up weapons at a rapid pace. According to the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), the US and Israel have already carried out over 2,000 strikes, each involving multiple munitions. Meanwhile, Iran has launched 571 missiles and 1,391 drones, many of which have been intercepted.
The depletion of weapons stockpiles is a significant factor in the conflict, with Western officials reporting a decrease in the number of missiles Iran is firing. Before the war, Iran was estimated to have a stockpile of over 2,000 short-range ballistic missiles, but this number is believed to be dwindling. America's top commander, Gen Dan Caine, reported that Iran's ballistic missile launches were down 86% from the first day of the fighting, and US Central Command (Centcom) noted a 23% decrease in just the last 24 hours.
Iran's drone launches have also dropped significantly, with Caine stating that they had decreased by 73% since the first day of the conflict. This dramatic decline may be an attempt to preserve stockpiles, but maintaining production will only become harder. The US and Israeli jets now have air supremacy over Iran, with most of Iran's air defences destroyed and its air force no longer credible.
The next phase of the war is focused on hunting down Iran's missile and drone launchers, its weapons stockpiles, and destroying the factories that produce them. While it may be easier for the US and Israel to degrade Iran's ability to fight, it will be difficult to destroy all its weapons stockpiles. Iran is a large country, and weapons can still be hidden from the sky.
The US remains the world's most powerful military, with conventional stockpiles that are deeper than any other country. However, the US military still largely relies on expensive precision-guided weapons that are produced in limited quantities. President Trump is reported to have called a meeting with defence contractors to press them to speed up production, indicating that even America's resources might be stretched.
Some of the pressure may have eased now that the US has relative freedom to carry out strikes at close range. The US Air Force is now using less expensive 'stand-in' weapons, such as JDAM bombs, which can be dropped above a target. Mark Cancian, a former US Marine colonel with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), says that the US can now use less expensive missiles and bombs, and could keep that level of fighting going on 'almost indefinitely'.
However, expensive air defence systems, such as Patriot missiles, are in shorter supply. Each interceptor missile costs over $4m, and the US is believed to currently produce around 700 a year. If Iran is still able to launch ballistic missiles, it will eat into these limited stockpiles. CSIS expert Cancian estimates that the US may have stockpiles of around 1,600 Patriot missiles, which will have been depleted in recent days.
The fact that Trump is set to meet US defence firms later this week is a sign that there is some concern about weapons stocks. But the US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth insists 'Iran can't outlast us'. On this, he's probably right. The US has tens of thousands of JDAM bombs, and while the air defence war is 'more iffy', the US can likely keep the air-to-ground war going for a long time.
In conclusion, the depletion of weapons stockpiles is a significant factor in the US and Iran conflict. While both sides are using up munitions at a rapid pace, the US has a deeper stockpile of conventional weapons. The outcome of the conflict will depend on various factors, including the ability of both sides to maintain production and replenish their stockpiles. As the war drags on, it is essential to monitor the situation closely and assess the implications of depleted weapons stockpiles on the outcome of the conflict.