Climate Change Disrupts Elections: A Global Concern

The climate crisis is posing a significant challenge to democracy, as evidenced by a recent report from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. This groundbreaking study reveals that at least 94 elections and referendums across 52 countries have been disrupted by climate-related events in the past two decades.

The analysis highlights a growing trend where natural hazards, such as floods, wildfires, and extreme weather, are becoming influential factors in the electoral process. This is particularly concerning for countries with fragile democratic systems, especially in Africa and Asia, where the impact of climate change is often more severe.

In 2024 alone, 23 elections in 18 countries were disrupted by these climate-related hazards. For instance, in Brazil, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Senegal, elections were affected by infrastructure damage, voter displacement, and last-minute changes to electoral processes.

The report emphasizes the need for strategic timing of elections to minimize the impact of predictable climate threats. Professor Sarah Birch, a co-author of the report, suggests that even countries like the US should reconsider holding elections during hurricane season.

The study provides several examples of how climate-related crises have influenced election outcomes. In Mozambique, Cyclone Idai in 2019 submerged critical infrastructure and displaced people, ultimately affecting the results of the presidential and legislative elections. Similarly, in Senegal's 2024 parliamentary election, flooding required firefighters to assist in transporting election observers to polling stations.

Heatwaves are another significant challenge, with at least 10 elections since 2022 impacted by extreme heat. In the Philippines, for instance, vote-counting machines overheated, leading to ejected ballots. Megacities, like Lagos in Nigeria, are particularly vulnerable, experiencing the most days with temperatures significantly above pre-climate change levels.

To address these challenges, the report recommends closer collaboration between election organizers, meteorological experts, environmental protection agencies, and disaster relief organizations. This approach is already showing promise in countries like Peru, where election staff receive disaster risk management training, and Canada, where the Alberta provincial legislature is moving its election date to avoid the wildfire season.

Professor Ferran Martínez i Coma underscores the importance of preparedness, stating that training and contingency planning are essential for maintaining the integrity and resilience of elections in the face of increasing natural hazards.